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Champions League · League phase, matchday 4Wednesday 4 November · 17:45 · Allwyn Arena
AEK Athens29th place
Rinvalo prediction1-2
Real Madrid4th place
AEK 20%X 20%RMA 59%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Real Madrid lead by 240 points on the European rating.
  • If AEK Athens score first, they win 46% of the time
  • If Real Madrid score first, they win 80% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.0 – 1.9
Over 2.556%
Both teams score55%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a Real Madrid win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
120%4.88X20%4.91259%1.69
Double chance
1X41%2.45X280%1.261280%1.26
Goals
Over 2.556%1.78Under 2.544%2.29BTTS yes55%1.81BTTS no45%2.23

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: AEK Athens · Columns: Real Madrid1-1 probability 11.1%

Form

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