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Tue 17:45GS2-1VFB43%Tue 17:45SHA1-2SCP46%Tue 19:45BLB1-0STK41%Tue 19:45CHA1-0BOL41%Tue 19:45DER1-2NOR43%Tue 19:45POR1-0SWA39%Tue 19:45PNE0-1SHU42%Tue 19:45QPR2-1BUR50%Tue 19:45WAT1-0LIN38%Tue 20:00BIR1-0MIL45%Tue 20:00WBA0-1SOU42%Tue 20:00ATM1-2FCB54%Tue 20:00BAR2-1AVL52%Tue 20:00BOD2-1LIL59%Tue 20:00FEY1-2INT47%Tue 20:00LAS2-1SLO61%Tue 20:00MUN1-2ROM40%Tue 20:00VIL0-2PSG69%Wed 15:30REN2-1OLY42%Wed 17:45AEK1-2RMA59%Wed 17:45FB1-2LIV48%Wed 19:45CAR1-2WHU48%Wed 19:45WRE1-2MID52%Wed 20:00BRC0-1WOL40%
Champions League · League phase, matchday 4Tuesday 3 November · 17:45 · Stamford Bridge
Shakhtar Donetsk17th place
Rinvalo prediction1-2
Sporting CP12th place
SHA 32%X 22%SCP 46%

What does the market say?

Shakhtar DonetskDrawSporting CPRinvalo32%22%46%
Market27%26%48%

✓ Agree · both back Sporting CP

Prediction

Key factors
  • Sporting CP lead by 130 points on the European rating.
  • If Shakhtar Donetsk score first, they win 58% of the time
  • If Sporting CP score first, they win 70% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.3 – 1.7
Over 2.558%
Both teams score61%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a Sporting CP win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
132%3.10X22%4.57246%2.18
Double chance
1X54%1.85X268%1.481278%1.28
Goals
Over 2.558%1.73Market 57%Under 2.542%2.38Market 43%BTTS yes61%1.65Market 58%BTTS no39%2.55Market 42%

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Shakhtar Donetsk · Columns: Sporting CP1-1 probability 11.8%

Form

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