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Premier League · Matchday 9Monday 2 November · 20:00 · St James Park
Newcastle United12th place
Rinvalo prediction1-0Medium confidence
Everton14th place
NEW 42%X 28%EVE 30%

What does the market say?

Newcastle UnitedDrawEvertonRinvalo42%28%30%
Market41%27%32%

✓ Agree · both back Newcastle United

Prediction

Key factors
  • The market also backs the home side (41%).
  • If Newcastle United score first, they win 71% of the time
  • If Everton score first, they win 61% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 8%
Expected goals1.4 – 1.2
Over 2.549%
Both teams score54%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Newcastle United win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
142%2.37X28%3.57230%3.35
Double chance
1X70%1.43X258%1.731272%1.39
Goals
Over 2.549%2.05Under 2.551%1.95BTTS yes54%1.86BTTS no46%2.17

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Newcastle United · Columns: Everton1-1 probability 13.2%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Newcastle United – Everton28 February 20262-3
Everton – Newcastle United29 November 20251-4
Newcastle United – Everton25 May 20250-1
Everton – Newcastle United5 October 20240-0
Newcastle United – Everton2 April 20241-1
Everton – Newcastle United7 December 20233-0