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Primeira Liga · Matchday 10Monday 2 November · 20:15 · Estádio da Luz
Benfica2nd place
Rinvalo prediction2-0High confidence
Alverca9th place
BEN 77%X 16%ALV 8%

What does the market say?

BenficaDrawAlvercaRinvalo77%16%8%
Market80%13%7%

✓ Agree · both back Benfica

Prediction

Key factors
  • Benfica lead by 247 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Benfica 1.5, Alverca -0.2.
  • Benfica take 2.3 points per game at home.
  • The market also backs the home side (80%).
  • If Benfica score first, they win 91% of the time
  • If Alverca score first, they win 27% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 4%
Expected goals2.6 – 0.8
Over 2.566%
Both teams score50%
Likeliest score2-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
177%1.30X16%6.4328%13.33
Double chance
1X93%1.08X223%4.341284%1.18
Goals
Over 2.566%1.52Under 2.534%2.93BTTS yes50%2.02BTTS no50%1.98

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Benfica · Columns: Alverca2-0 probability 11.7%

Form

Compare →
BenficaWWLWW
AlvercaLWWWL

Head to head

Benfica – Alverca8 February 20262-1
Alverca – Benfica31 August 20251-2