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Championship · Matchday 14Tuesday 3 November · 20:00 · St Andrew's @ Knighthead Park
Birmingham City6th place
Rinvalo prediction1-0Medium confidence
Millwall12th place
BIR 45%X 28%MIL 27%

What's at stake

Birmingham CityAutomatic promotion15%10%8%

What does the market say?

Birmingham CityDrawMillwallRinvalo45%28%27%
Market48%26%25%

✓ Agree · both back Birmingham City

Prediction

Key factors
  • Last 5 games: Birmingham City 2.4 points per game, Millwall 1.4.
  • The market also backs the home side (48%).
  • If Birmingham City score first, they win 74% of the time
  • If Millwall score first, they win 59% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 9%
Expected goals1.4 – 1.0
Over 2.544%
Both teams score50%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Birmingham City win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
145%2.24X28%3.55227%3.67
Double chance
1X73%1.37X255%1.801272%1.39
Goals
Over 2.544%2.25Market 53%Under 2.556%1.80Market 47%BTTS yes50%2.00Market 56%BTTS no50%2.00Market 44%

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Birmingham City · Columns: Millwall1-1 probability 13.5%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Millwall – Birmingham City25 February 20263-0
Birmingham City – Millwall4 November 20254-0
Millwall – Birmingham City9 March 20241-0
Birmingham City – Millwall2 September 20231-1
Millwall – Birmingham City18 April 20230-1
Birmingham City – Millwall2 November 20220-0