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Championship · Matchday 14Tuesday 3 November · 20:00 · The Hawthorns
West Bromwich Albion5th place
Rinvalo prediction0-1Low confidence
Southampton2nd place
WBA 30%X 28%SOU 42%

What's at stake

West Bromwich AlbionAutomatic promotion9%5%4%
SouthamptonTitle44%34%30%

What does the market say?

West Bromwich AlbionDrawSouthamptonRinvalo30%28%42%
Market38%28%34%

⚠ Split · Rinvalo Southampton 42%, market West Bromwich Albion 38%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Southampton lead by 119 rating points.
  • Southampton take 1.9 points per game away.
  • The market differs: the home side 37%.
  • If West Bromwich Albion score first, they win 61% of the time
  • If Southampton score first, they win 71% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 8%
Expected goals1.2 – 1.4
Over 2.549%
Both teams score54%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 0-1 is the likeliest score within a Southampton win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
130%3.29X28%3.64242%2.38
Double chance
1X58%1.73X270%1.441272%1.38
Goals
Over 2.549%2.05Market 55%Under 2.551%1.95Market 45%BTTS yes54%1.86Market 61%BTTS no46%2.17Market 39%

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: West Bromwich Albion · Columns: Southampton1-1 probability 13.2%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

West Bromwich Albion – Southampton11 March 20261-1
Southampton – West Bromwich Albion9 December 20253-2
West Bromwich Albion – Southampton16 February 20240-2
Southampton – West Bromwich Albion11 November 20232-1