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Picks
Tue 17:45GS2-1VFB43%Tue 17:45SHA1-2SCP46%Tue 19:45BLB1-0STK41%Tue 19:45CHA1-0BOL41%Tue 19:45DER1-2NOR43%Tue 19:45POR1-0SWA39%Tue 19:45PNE0-1SHU42%Tue 19:45QPR2-1BUR50%Tue 19:45WAT1-0LIN38%Tue 20:00BIR1-0MIL45%Tue 20:00WBA0-1SOU42%Tue 20:00ATM1-2FCB54%Tue 20:00BAR2-1AVL52%Tue 20:00BOD2-1LIL59%Tue 20:00FEY1-2INT47%Tue 20:00LAS2-1SLO61%Tue 20:00MUN1-2ROM40%Tue 20:00VIL0-2PSG69%Wed 15:30REN2-1OLY42%Wed 17:45AEK1-2RMA59%Wed 17:45FB1-2LIV48%Wed 19:45CAR1-2WHU48%Wed 19:45WRE1-2MID52%Wed 20:00BRC0-1WOL40%
Championship · Matchday 14Tuesday 3 November · 19:45 · Vicarage Road
Watford21st place
Rinvalo prediction1-0Low confidence
Lincoln City16th place
WAT 38%X 29%LIN 33%

What's at stake

WatfordRelegation38%51%56%
Lincoln CityRelegation8%13%19%

What does the market say?

WatfordDrawLincoln CityRinvalo38%29%33%
Market38%28%33%

✓ Agree · both back Watford

Prediction

Key factors
  • The market also backs the home side (38%).
  • If Watford score first, they win 68% of the time
  • If Lincoln City score first, they win 64% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 9%
Expected goals1.3 – 1.2
Over 2.546%
Both teams score52%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Watford win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
138%2.61X29%3.51233%3.01
Double chance
1X67%1.50X262%1.621271%1.40
Goals
Over 2.546%2.17Market 50%Under 2.554%1.85Market 50%BTTS yes52%1.92Market 56%BTTS no48%2.08Market 44%

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Watford · Columns: Lincoln City1-1 probability 13.7%

Form

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