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Mon 19:45ATA1-0PAR59%Mon 19:45LOR1-0BRE44%Mon 20:00DEP1-0OSA43%Mon 20:00NEW1-0EVE42%Mon 20:15BEN2-0ALV77%Mon 20:15GIL1-0VSC44%Tue 17:45GS2-1VFB43%Tue 17:45SHA1-2SCP46%Tue 19:45BLB1-0STK41%Tue 19:45CHA1-0BOL41%Tue 19:45DER1-2NOR43%Tue 19:45POR1-0SWA39%Tue 19:45PNE0-1SHU42%Tue 19:45QPR2-1BUR50%Tue 19:45WAT1-0LIN38%Tue 20:00BIR1-0MIL45%Tue 20:00WBA0-1SOU42%Tue 20:00ATM1-2FCB54%Tue 20:00BAR2-1AVL52%Tue 20:00BOD2-1LIL59%Tue 20:00FEY1-2INT47%Tue 20:00LAS2-1SLO61%Tue 20:00MUN1-2ROM40%Tue 20:00VIL0-2PSG69%
Championship · Matchday 14Wednesday 4 November · 19:45 · Cardiff City Stadium
Cardiff City17th place
Rinvalo prediction1-2Medium confidence
West Ham8th place
CAR 28%X 23%WHU 48%

What's at stake

Cardiff CityRelegation5%6%8%
West HamAutomatic promotion11%8%5%

Prediction

Key factors
  • West Ham lead by 96 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: West Ham 0.9, Cardiff City 0.2.
  • If Cardiff City score first, they win 53% of the time
  • If West Ham score first, they win 71% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 3%
Expected goals1.6 – 2.1
Over 2.572%
Both teams score71%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a West Ham win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
128%3.52X23%4.28248%2.07
Double chance
1X52%1.93X272%1.401277%1.30
Goals
Over 2.572%1.40Under 2.528%3.51BTTS yes71%1.41BTTS no29%3.41

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Cardiff City · Columns: West Ham1-1 probability 8.9%

Form

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