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Champions League · League phase, matchday 4Wednesday 4 November · 20:00 · Red Bull Arena Leipzig
RB Leipzig30th place
Rinvalo prediction1-2
Manchester City10th place
RBL 30%X 22%MCI 48%

What does the market say?

RB LeipzigDrawManchester CityRinvalo30%22%48%
Market18%20%62%

✓ Agree · both back Manchester City

Prediction

Key factors
  • Manchester City lead by 146 points on the European rating.
  • The Premier League average is 58 points above the Bundesliga average.
  • If RB Leipzig score first, they win 56% of the time
  • If Manchester City score first, they win 72% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.3 – 1.7
Over 2.558%
Both teams score60%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a Manchester City win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
130%3.29X22%4.59248%2.09
Double chance
1X52%1.92X270%1.441278%1.28
Goals
Over 2.558%1.73Market 70%Under 2.542%2.37Market 30%BTTS yes60%1.66Market 65%BTTS no40%2.52Market 35%

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: RB Leipzig · Columns: Manchester City1-1 probability 11.8%

Form

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