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Championship · Matchday 14Wednesday 4 November · 19:45 · SToK Cae Ras
Wrexham18th place
Rinvalo prediction1-2Medium confidence
Middlesbrough1st place
WRE 23%X 26%MID 52%

What's at stake

MiddlesbroughTitle59%49%46%

What does the market say?

WrexhamDrawMiddlesbroughRinvalo23%26%52%
Market22%24%54%

✓ Agree · both back Middlesbrough

Prediction

Key factors
  • Middlesbrough lead by 135 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Middlesbrough 2.6 points per game, Wrexham 0.8.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Middlesbrough 1.2, Wrexham -0.3.
  • The market also backs the away side (54%).
  • If Wrexham score first, they win 51% of the time
  • If Middlesbrough score first, they win 76% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.2 – 1.8
Over 2.557%
Both teams score58%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a Middlesbrough win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
123%4.40X26%3.88252%1.94
Double chance
1X49%2.06X277%1.291274%1.35
Goals
Over 2.557%1.74Market 59%Under 2.543%2.34Market 41%BTTS yes58%1.71Market 58%BTTS no42%2.40Market 42%

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Wrexham · Columns: Middlesbrough1-1 probability 11.5%

Form

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Head to head

Wrexham – Middlesbrough2 May 20262-2
Middlesbrough – Wrexham25 October 20251-1