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Champions League · League phase, matchday 4Wednesday 4 November · 20:00 · Estádio do Dragão
Porto34th place
Rinvalo prediction2-1
Napoli22nd place
POR 61%X 19%NAP 20%

What does the market say?

PortoDrawNapoliRinvalo61%19%20%
Market49%26%25%

✓ Agree · both back Porto

Prediction

Key factors
  • Porto lead by 100 points on the European rating.
  • The Serie A average is 35 points above the Primeira Liga average.
  • If Porto score first, they win 81% of the time
  • If Napoli score first, they win 45% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals2.0 – 1.0
Over 2.558%
Both teams score55%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Porto win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
161%1.63X19%5.33220%5.04
Double chance
1X80%1.25X239%2.591281%1.23
Goals
Over 2.558%1.73Market 55%Under 2.542%2.37Market 45%BTTS yes55%1.80Market 58%BTTS no45%2.24Market 42%

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Porto · Columns: Napoli1-1 probability 10.7%

Form

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