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Süper Lig · Matchday 9Monday 26 October · 18:30 · Rams Park
Galatasaray1st place
Full time2-1Exact score
Fenerbahçe6th place
GS 48%X 26%FB 26%

What does the market say?

GalatasarayDrawFenerbahçeRinvalo48%26%26%
Market43%25%32%

✓ Agree · both back Galatasaray

Prediction

Predicted: 2-1
Key factors
  • Galatasaray take 2.6 points per game at home.
  • Derby match.
  • If Galatasaray score first, they win 72% of the time
  • If Fenerbahçe score first, they win 53% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 4%
Expected goals2.0 – 1.5
Over 2.568%
Both teams score67%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Galatasaray win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
148%2.09X26%3.91226%3.78
Double chance
1X74%1.36X252%1.921274%1.34
Goals
Over 2.568%1.48Under 2.532%3.08BTTS yes67%1.48BTTS no33%3.07

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Galatasaray · Columns: Fenerbahçe2-1 probability 9.1% · final score

Form

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Head to head

Galatasaray – Fenerbahçe26 October 20262-1
Galatasaray – Fenerbahçe26 April 20263-0
Fenerbahçe – Galatasaray1 December 20251-1
Galatasaray – Fenerbahçe24 February 20250-0
Fenerbahçe – Galatasaray21 September 20241-3
Galatasaray – Fenerbahçe19 May 20240-1