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Süper Lig · Matchday 13Sunday 29 November · 16:00 · Chobani Stadyumu
Fenerbahçe6th place
Rinvalo prediction2-0High confidence
Erzurumspor11th place
FB 78%X 15%ERZ 7%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Fenerbahçe lead by 228 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Fenerbahçe 0.8, Erzurumspor -0.5.
  • Fenerbahçe take 2.0 points per game at home.
  • If Fenerbahçe score first, they win 91% of the time
  • If Erzurumspor score first, they win 27% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 4%
Expected goals2.6 – 0.7
Over 2.565%
Both teams score47%
Likeliest score2-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
178%1.28X15%6.6327%14.29
Double chance
1X93%1.08X222%4.531285%1.18
Goals
Over 2.565%1.55Under 2.535%2.83BTTS yes47%2.11BTTS no53%1.90

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
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Rows: Fenerbahçe · Columns: Erzurumspor2-0 probability 12.3%

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