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Champions League · League phase, matchday 6Tuesday 8 December · 20:00 · Villa Park
Aston Villa2nd place
Rinvalo prediction1-2
Paris Saint-Germain1st place
AVL 37%X 22%PSG 41%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Paris Saint-Germain lead by 90 points on the European rating.
  • The Premier League average is 120 points above the Ligue 1 average.
  • If Aston Villa score first, they win 63% of the time
  • If Paris Saint-Germain score first, they win 66% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.5 – 1.6
Over 2.558%
Both teams score62%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a Paris Saint-Germain win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
137%2.69X22%4.55241%2.45
Double chance
1X59%1.69X263%1.591278%1.28
Goals
Over 2.558%1.71Under 2.542%2.40BTTS yes62%1.62BTTS no38%2.60

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Aston Villa · Columns: Paris Saint-Germain1-1 probability 11.9%

Form

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