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Champions League · League phase, matchday 6Tuesday 8 December · 20:00 · Stadio Olimpico
Roma15th place
Rinvalo prediction2-1
Sporting CP12th place
ROM 46%X 21%SCP 33%

Prediction

Key factors
  • The Serie A average is 35 points above the Primeira Liga average.
  • If Roma score first, they win 70% of the time
  • If Sporting CP score first, they win 58% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.7 – 1.4
Over 2.559%
Both teams score61%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Roma win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
146%2.18X21%4.66233%3.06
Double chance
1X67%1.49X254%1.851279%1.27
Goals
Over 2.559%1.71Under 2.541%2.41BTTS yes61%1.63BTTS no39%2.58

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Roma · Columns: Sporting CP1-1 probability 11.7%

Form

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