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Champions League · League phase, matchday 6Tuesday 8 December · 20:00 · Old Trafford
Manchester United21st place
Rinvalo prediction2-1
RB Leipzig30th place
MUN 46%X 21%RBL 33%

Prediction

Key factors
  • The Premier League average is 58 points above the Bundesliga average.
  • If Manchester United score first, they win 70% of the time
  • If RB Leipzig score first, they win 58% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.7 – 1.4
Over 2.559%
Both teams score61%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Manchester United win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
146%2.17X21%4.66233%3.08
Double chance
1X68%1.48X254%1.851279%1.27
Goals
Over 2.559%1.71Under 2.541%2.41BTTS yes61%1.63BTTS no39%2.58

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Manchester United · Columns: RB Leipzig1-1 probability 11.7%

Form

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