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Süper Lig · Matchday 23Sunday 28 February · 12:00 · Rams Park
Galatasaray1st place
Rinvalo prediction2-1High confidence
Trabzonspor3rd place
GS 59%X 23%TS 18%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Galatasaray take 2.6 points per game at home.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Galatasaray 1.3, Trabzonspor 0.5.
  • Derby match.
  • If Galatasaray score first, they win 81% of the time
  • If Trabzonspor score first, they win 44% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 5%
Expected goals2.1 – 1.1
Over 2.561%
Both teams score59%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Galatasaray win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
159%1.69X23%4.35218%5.66
Double chance
1X82%1.21X241%2.461277%1.30
Goals
Over 2.561%1.63Under 2.539%2.59BTTS yes59%1.71BTTS no41%2.42

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Galatasaray · Columns: Trabzonspor1-1 probability 10.2%

Form

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Head to head

Trabzonspor – Galatasaray19 September 20264-0
Trabzonspor – Galatasaray4 April 20262-1
Galatasaray – Trabzonspor1 November 20250-0
Trabzonspor – Galatasaray10 May 20250-2
Galatasaray – Trabzonspor16 December 20244-3
Trabzonspor – Galatasaray21 January 20241-5