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Picks
Tue 17:45GS2-1VFB43%Tue 17:45SHA1-2SCP46%Tue 19:45BLB1-0STK41%Tue 19:45CHA1-0BOL41%Tue 19:45DER1-2NOR43%Tue 19:45POR1-0SWA39%Tue 19:45PNE0-1SHU42%Tue 19:45QPR2-1BUR50%Tue 19:45WAT1-0LIN38%Tue 20:00BIR1-0MIL45%Tue 20:00WBA0-1SOU42%Tue 20:00ATM1-2FCB54%Tue 20:00BAR2-1AVL52%Tue 20:00BOD2-1LIL59%Tue 20:00FEY1-2INT47%Tue 20:00LAS2-1SLO61%Tue 20:00MUN1-2ROM40%Tue 20:00VIL0-2PSG69%Wed 15:30REN2-1OLY42%Wed 17:45AEK1-2RMA59%Wed 17:45FB1-2LIV48%Wed 19:45CAR1-2WHU48%Wed 19:45WRE1-2MID52%Wed 20:00BRC0-1WOL40%
Champions League · League phase, matchday 2Tuesday 13 October · 20:00 · Emirates Stadium
Arsenal7th place
Full time3-0Rinvalo's pick: 2-0✓ Result correct
Lille35th place
ARS 80%X 13%LIL 7%

Prediction

Predicted: 2-0
Key factors
  • Arsenal lead by 291 points on the European rating.
  • The Premier League average is 115 points above the Ligue 1 average.
  • If Arsenal score first, they win 93% of the time
  • If Lille score first, they win 27% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals2.4 – 0.5
Over 2.554%
Both teams score36%
Likeliest score2-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
180%1.25X13%7.9527%13.46
Double chance
1X93%1.08X220%5.001287%1.14
Goals
Over 2.554%1.84Under 2.546%2.20BTTS yes36%2.81BTTS no64%1.55

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Arsenal · Columns: Lille3-0 probability 12.7% · final score

Form

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Head to head

Arsenal – Lille13 October 20263-0