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Champions League · League phase, matchday 2Tuesday 13 October · 20:00 · Estadio de la Cerámica
Villarreal19th place
Full time3-1Rinvalo's pick: 2-1✓ Result correct
Napoli22nd place
VIL 39%X 22%NAP 39%

Prediction

Predicted: 2-1
Key factors
  • The Serie A average is 30 points above the La Liga average.
  • If Villarreal score first, they win 65% of the time
  • If Napoli score first, they win 64% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.5 – 1.5
Over 2.558%
Both teams score62%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Villarreal win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
139%2.54X22%4.52239%2.60
Double chance
1X61%1.63X261%1.651278%1.28
Goals
Over 2.558%1.72Under 2.542%2.39BTTS yes62%1.63BTTS no39%2.60

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Villarreal · Columns: Napoli3-1 probability 4.3% · final score

Form

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Head to head

Villarreal – Napoli13 October 20263-1