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Champions League · League phase, matchday 2Tuesday 13 October · 20:00 · Riyadh Air Metropolitano
Atlético Madrid16th place
Full time2-0Prediction wrong
Manchester United21st place
ATM 38%X 22%MUN 39%

Prediction

Predicted: 1-2
Key factors
  • Manchester United lead by 80 points on the European rating.
  • The Premier League average is 151 points above the La Liga average.
  • If Atlético Madrid score first, they win 64% of the time
  • If Manchester United score first, they win 65% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.5 – 1.5
Over 2.558%
Both teams score61%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a Manchester United win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
138%2.60X22%4.52239%2.54
Double chance
1X61%1.65X262%1.621278%1.28
Goals
Over 2.558%1.72Under 2.542%2.39BTTS yes61%1.63BTTS no39%2.60

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Atlético Madrid · Columns: Manchester United2-0 probability 5.5% · final score

Form

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Head to head

Atlético Madrid – Manchester United13 October 20262-0