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Champions League · League phase, matchday 6Wednesday 9 December · 20:00 · Signal Iduna Park
Dortmund13th place
Rinvalo prediction2-1
Inter20th place
BVB 53%X 20%INT 26%

Prediction

Key factors
  • The Bundesliga average is 65 points above the Serie A average.
  • If Dortmund score first, they win 75% of the time
  • If Inter score first, they win 52% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.8 – 1.2
Over 2.558%
Both teams score59%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Dortmund win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
153%1.88X20%4.89226%3.81
Double chance
1X74%1.36X247%2.141280%1.26
Goals
Over 2.558%1.71Under 2.542%2.40BTTS yes59%1.68BTTS no41%2.46

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Dortmund · Columns: Inter1-1 probability 11.3%

Form

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