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Champions League · League phase, matchday 6Wednesday 9 December · 20:00 · Philips Stadion
PSV Eindhoven18th place
Rinvalo prediction2-1
Atlético Madrid16th place
PSV 45%X 22%ATM 34%

Prediction

Key factors
  • The La Liga average is 76 points above the Eredivisie average.
  • If PSV Eindhoven score first, they win 69% of the time
  • If Atlético Madrid score first, they win 59% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.6 – 1.4
Over 2.559%
Both teams score61%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a PSV Eindhoven win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
145%2.24X22%4.63234%2.96
Double chance
1X66%1.51X255%1.801278%1.28
Goals
Over 2.559%1.71Under 2.541%2.41BTTS yes61%1.63BTTS no39%2.59

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: PSV Eindhoven · Columns: Atlético Madrid1-1 probability 11.8%

Form

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