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Europa League · League phase, matchday 6Thursday 10 December · 17:45 · AFAS Stadion Alkmaar
AZ Alkmaar10th place
Rinvalo prediction2-1
Sturm Graz19th place
AZ 59%X 19%STU 22%

Prediction

Key factors
  • AZ Alkmaar lead by 79 points on the European rating.
  • If AZ Alkmaar score first, they win 79% of the time
  • If Sturm Graz score first, they win 47% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.9 – 1.1
Over 2.558%
Both teams score57%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a AZ Alkmaar win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
159%1.70X19%5.17222%4.59
Double chance
1X78%1.28X241%2.431281%1.24
Goals
Over 2.558%1.73Under 2.542%2.38BTTS yes57%1.76BTTS no43%2.32

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: AZ Alkmaar · Columns: Sturm Graz1-1 probability 10.9%

Form

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