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Europa League · League phase, matchday 6Thursday 10 December · 17:45 · Orange Vélodrome
Marseille34th place
Rinvalo prediction2-1
Celta Vigo25th place
OM 55%X 20%CEL 25%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Marseille lead by 45 points on the European rating.
  • If Marseille score first, they win 76% of the time
  • If Celta Vigo score first, they win 51% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.9 – 1.2
Over 2.558%
Both teams score59%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Marseille win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
155%1.83X20%4.95225%3.97
Double chance
1X75%1.34X245%2.201280%1.25
Goals
Over 2.558%1.72Under 2.542%2.40BTTS yes59%1.70BTTS no41%2.43

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Marseille · Columns: Celta Vigo1-1 probability 11.3%

Form

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