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Süper Lig · Matchday 14Saturday 5 December · 16:00 · Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu
Başakşehir10th place
Rinvalo prediction1-2Low confidence
Fenerbahçe6th place
İBFK 33%X 26%FB 40%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Fenerbahçe lead by 105 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Fenerbahçe 0.8, Başakşehir 0.1.
  • If Başakşehir score first, they win 60% of the time
  • If Fenerbahçe score first, they win 66% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 5%
Expected goals1.5 – 1.7
Over 2.563%
Both teams score65%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a Fenerbahçe win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
133%2.99X26%3.81240%2.48
Double chance
1X60%1.68X267%1.501274%1.36
Goals
Over 2.563%1.60Under 2.537%2.67BTTS yes65%1.54BTTS no35%2.84

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Başakşehir · Columns: Fenerbahçe1-1 probability 11.0%

Form

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Head to head

Fenerbahçe – Başakşehir2 May 20263-1
Başakşehir – Fenerbahçe6 December 20251-1
Başakşehir – Fenerbahçe9 May 20251-4
Fenerbahçe – Başakşehir15 December 20243-1
Başakşehir – Fenerbahçe24 January 20240-1
Fenerbahçe – Başakşehir28 September 20234-0