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Süper Lig · Matchday 21Sunday 14 February · 12:00 · Tüpraş Stadyumu
Beşiktaş4th place
Rinvalo prediction2-1Low confidence
Fenerbahçe6th place
BJK 44%X 26%FB 30%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Beşiktaş take 2.2 points per game at home.
  • Derby match.
  • If Beşiktaş score first, they win 70% of the time
  • If Fenerbahçe score first, they win 57% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 5%
Expected goals1.7 – 1.4
Over 2.560%
Both teams score62%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Beşiktaş win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
144%2.26X26%3.81230%3.38
Double chance
1X70%1.42X256%1.791274%1.36
Goals
Over 2.560%1.67Under 2.540%2.49BTTS yes62%1.61BTTS no38%2.64

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Beşiktaş · Columns: Fenerbahçe1-1 probability 11.5%

Form

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Head to head

Fenerbahçe – Beşiktaş5 September 20261-2
Fenerbahçe – Beşiktaş5 April 20261-0
Beşiktaş – Fenerbahçe2 November 20252-3
Fenerbahçe – Beşiktaş4 May 20250-1
Beşiktaş – Fenerbahçe7 December 20241-0
Fenerbahçe – Beşiktaş27 April 20242-1