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Süper Lig · Matchday 7Sunday 11 October · 17:00 · Tüpraş Stadyumu
Beşiktaş4th place
Full time2-1Prediction correct
Kocaelispor8th place
BJK 65%X 23%KOC 12%

What does the market say?

BeşiktaşDrawKocaelisporRinvalo65%23%12%
Market73%18%9%

✓ Agree · both back Beşiktaş

Prediction

Predicted: 1-0
Key factors
  • Beşiktaş lead by 114 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Beşiktaş 1.0, Kocaelispor -0.5.
  • Beşiktaş take 2.0 points per game at home.
  • If Beşiktaş score first, they win 88% of the time
  • If Kocaelispor score first, they win 44% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 11%
Expected goals1.7 – 0.6
Over 2.540%
Both teams score36%
Likeliest score1-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
165%1.54X23%4.39212%8.16
Double chance
1X88%1.14X235%2.851277%1.30
Goals
Over 2.540%2.51Under 2.560%1.66BTTS yes36%2.74BTTS no64%1.57

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Beşiktaş · Columns: Kocaelispor2-1 probability 8.5% · final score

Form

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Head to head

Beşiktaş – Kocaelispor11 October 20262-1
Kocaelispor – Beşiktaş28 February 20260-1
Beşiktaş – Kocaelispor29 September 20253-1