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Süper Lig · Matchday 7Friday 9 October · 18:00 · Rams Park
Galatasaray1st place
Full time3-1Rinvalo's pick: 2-0✓ Result correct
Kasımpaşa5th place
GS 72%X 18%KAS 10%

What does the market say?

GalatasarayDrawKasımpaşaRinvalo72%18%10%
Market74%16%10%

✓ Agree · both back Galatasaray

Prediction

Predicted: 2-0
Key factors
  • Galatasaray lead by 178 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Galatasaray 1.1, Kasımpaşa -0.2.
  • Galatasaray take 2.6 points per game at home.
  • If Galatasaray score first, they win 88% of the time
  • If Kasımpaşa score first, they win 32% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 4%
Expected goals2.5 – 0.8
Over 2.564%
Both teams score52%
Likeliest score2-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
172%1.38X18%5.53210%10.42
Double chance
1X90%1.11X228%3.611282%1.22
Goals
Over 2.564%1.57Under 2.536%2.75BTTS yes52%1.93BTTS no48%2.08

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Galatasaray · Columns: Kasımpaşa3-1 probability 7.6% · final score

Form

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Head to head

Galatasaray – Kasımpaşa9 October 20263-1
Kasımpaşa – Galatasaray17 May 20261-0
Galatasaray – Kasımpaşa21 December 20253-0
Kasımpaşa – Galatasaray2 March 20253-3
Galatasaray – Kasımpaşa28 September 20243-3
Kasımpaşa – Galatasaray17 March 20243-4