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Bundesliga · Matchday 23Saturday 27 February · 14:30 · Signal Iduna Park
Dortmund2nd place
Rinvalo prediction2-0High confidence
Union Berlin16th place
BVB 69%X 20%FCU 11%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Dortmund lead by 241 rating points.
  • Dortmund take 2.2 points per game at home.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Dortmund 0.4, Union Berlin -0.2.
  • If Dortmund score first, they win 87% of the time
  • If Union Berlin score first, they win 36% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals2.2 – 0.8
Over 2.557%
Both teams score49%
Likeliest score2-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
169%1.45X20%4.95211%9.22
Double chance
1X89%1.12X231%3.221280%1.25
Goals
Over 2.557%1.75Under 2.543%2.33BTTS yes49%2.05BTTS no51%1.95

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Dortmund · Columns: Union Berlin2-0 probability 12.3%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Union Berlin – Dortmund17 October 20260-0
Union Berlin – Dortmund24 January 20260-3
Dortmund – Union Berlin31 August 20253-0
Dortmund – Union Berlin22 February 20256-0
Union Berlin – Dortmund5 October 20242-1
Union Berlin – Dortmund2 March 20240-2