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Bundesliga · Matchday 23Saturday 27 February · 14:30 · MHP Arena
Stuttgart11th place
Rinvalo prediction2-0High confidence
Hamburg15th place
VFB 67%X 20%HSV 13%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Stuttgart lead by 155 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Stuttgart -0.1, Hamburg -0.7.
  • If Stuttgart score first, they win 85% of the time
  • If Hamburg score first, they win 37% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 4%
Expected goals2.3 – 1.0
Over 2.565%
Both teams score57%
Likeliest score2-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
167%1.50X20%4.94213%7.56
Double chance
1X87%1.15X233%2.991280%1.25
Goals
Over 2.565%1.54Under 2.535%2.84BTTS yes57%1.74BTTS no43%2.35

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Stuttgart · Columns: Hamburg2-0 probability 9.8%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Hamburg – Stuttgart17 October 20261-0
Stuttgart – Hamburg12 April 20264-0
Hamburg – Stuttgart30 November 20252-1