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Tue 17:45GS2-1VFB43%Tue 17:45SHA1-2SCP46%Tue 19:45BLB1-0STK41%Tue 19:45CHA1-0BOL41%Tue 19:45DER1-2NOR43%Tue 19:45POR1-0SWA39%Tue 19:45PNE0-1SHU42%Tue 19:45QPR2-1BUR50%Tue 19:45WAT1-0LIN38%Tue 20:00BIR1-0MIL45%Tue 20:00WBA0-1SOU42%Tue 20:00ATM1-2FCB54%Tue 20:00BAR2-1AVL52%Tue 20:00BOD2-1LIL59%Tue 20:00FEY1-2INT47%Tue 20:00LAS2-1SLO61%Tue 20:00MUN1-2ROM40%Tue 20:00VIL0-2PSG69%Wed 15:30REN2-1OLY42%Wed 17:45AEK1-2RMA59%Wed 17:45FB1-2LIV48%Wed 19:45CAR1-2WHU48%Wed 19:45WRE1-2MID52%Wed 20:00BRC0-1WOL40%
Bundesliga · Matchday 23Saturday 27 February · 14:30 · MEWA ARENA
Mainz9th place
Rinvalo prediction1-0High confidence
Schalke 0417th place
M05 65%X 22%S04 13%

Prediction

Key factors
  • xG difference over the last 10: Mainz 0.4, Schalke 04 -1.2.
  • Mainz lead by 82 rating points.
  • If Mainz score first, they win 87% of the time
  • If Schalke 04 score first, they win 43% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 10%
Expected goals1.8 – 0.6
Over 2.544%
Both teams score40%
Likeliest score1-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
165%1.54X22%4.60213%7.56
Double chance
1X87%1.15X235%2.861278%1.28
Goals
Over 2.544%2.29Under 2.556%1.78BTTS yes40%2.49BTTS no60%1.67

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Mainz · Columns: Schalke 041-0 probability 15.1%

Form

Compare →
MainzWLWLL

Head to head

Schalke 04 – Mainz17 October 20260-1
Mainz – Schalke 045 May 20232-3
Schalke 04 – Mainz9 November 20221-0