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Bundesliga · Matchday 23Saturday 27 February · 14:30 · PreZero Arena
Hoffenheim12th place
Rinvalo prediction2-1High confidence
M'gladbach18th place
TSG 63%X 22%BMG 16%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Hoffenheim lead by 87 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Hoffenheim 0.4, M'gladbach -0.6.
  • If Hoffenheim score first, they win 82% of the time
  • If M'gladbach score first, they win 40% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 4%
Expected goals2.3 – 1.1
Over 2.566%
Both teams score61%
Likeliest score2-1
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
163%1.59X22%4.61216%6.43
Double chance
1X84%1.18X237%2.681278%1.28
Goals
Over 2.566%1.51Under 2.534%2.95BTTS yes61%1.64BTTS no39%2.56

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Hoffenheim · Columns: M'gladbach2-1 probability 9.7%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

M'gladbach – Hoffenheim18 October 20261-2
M'gladbach – Hoffenheim16 May 20264-0
Hoffenheim – M'gladbach14 January 20265-1
M'gladbach – Hoffenheim3 May 20254-4
Hoffenheim – M'gladbach21 December 20241-2
Hoffenheim – M'gladbach20 April 20244-3