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Süper Lig · Matchday 15Saturday 12 December · 10:30 · Kazım Karabekir Stadyumu
Erzurumspor11th place
Rinvalo prediction0-1Low confidence
Kasımpaşa5th place
ERZ 33%X 31%KAS 37%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Kasımpaşa lead by 72 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Kasımpaşa 0.0, Erzurumspor -0.5.
  • If Erzurumspor score first, they win 66% of the time
  • If Kasımpaşa score first, they win 69% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 11%
Expected goals1.1 – 1.2
Over 2.540%
Both teams score47%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 0-1 is the likeliest score within a Kasımpaşa win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
133%3.04X31%3.28237%2.74
Double chance
1X63%1.58X267%1.491269%1.44
Goals
Over 2.540%2.52Under 2.560%1.66BTTS yes47%2.13BTTS no53%1.89

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Erzurumspor · Columns: Kasımpaşa1-1 probability 14.2%

Form

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