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Süper Lig · Matchday 15Sunday 13 December · 16:00 · Chobani Stadyumu
Fenerbahçe6th place
Rinvalo prediction2-1Medium confidence
Trabzonspor3rd place
FB 54%X 24%TS 21%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Fenerbahçe take 2.0 points per game at home.
  • Derby match.
  • If Fenerbahçe score first, they win 77% of the time
  • If Trabzonspor score first, they win 48% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 5%
Expected goals2.0 – 1.2
Over 2.563%
Both teams score62%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Fenerbahçe win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
154%1.84X24%4.11221%4.68
Double chance
1X79%1.27X246%2.191276%1.32
Goals
Over 2.563%1.58Under 2.537%2.73BTTS yes62%1.61BTTS no38%2.65

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Fenerbahçe · Columns: Trabzonspor1-1 probability 10.3%

Form

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Head to head

Trabzonspor – Fenerbahçe14 February 20262-3
Fenerbahçe – Trabzonspor14 September 20251-0
Fenerbahçe – Trabzonspor6 April 20254-1
Trabzonspor – Fenerbahçe3 November 20242-3
Trabzonspor – Fenerbahçe17 March 20242-3
Fenerbahçe – Trabzonspor4 November 20232-3