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Süper Lig · Matchday 31Sunday 2 May · 13:00 · Chobani Stadyumu
Fenerbahçe6th place
Rinvalo prediction2-1High confidence
Başakşehir10th place
FB 64%X 21%İBFK 15%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Fenerbahçe lead by 105 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Fenerbahçe 0.8, Başakşehir 0.1.
  • Fenerbahçe take 2.0 points per game at home.
  • If Fenerbahçe score first, they win 83% of the time
  • If Başakşehir score first, they win 40% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 4%
Expected goals2.3 – 1.1
Over 2.566%
Both teams score61%
Likeliest score2-1
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
164%1.57X21%4.66215%6.65
Double chance
1X85%1.18X236%2.741279%1.27
Goals
Over 2.566%1.51Under 2.534%2.97BTTS yes61%1.65BTTS no39%2.54

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Fenerbahçe · Columns: Başakşehir2-1 probability 9.7%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Fenerbahçe – Başakşehir2 May 20263-1
Başakşehir – Fenerbahçe6 December 20251-1
Başakşehir – Fenerbahçe9 May 20251-4
Fenerbahçe – Başakşehir15 December 20243-1
Başakşehir – Fenerbahçe24 January 20240-1
Fenerbahçe – Başakşehir28 September 20234-0