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Süper Lig · Matchday 26Sunday 21 March · 12:00 · Chobani Stadyumu
Fenerbahçe6th place
Rinvalo prediction2-1Medium confidence
Galatasaray1st place
FB 43%X 26%GS 30%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Fenerbahçe take 2.0 points per game at home.
  • Derby match.
  • If Fenerbahçe score first, they win 69% of the time
  • If Galatasaray score first, they win 57% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 4%
Expected goals1.8 – 1.5
Over 2.564%
Both teams score65%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Fenerbahçe win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
143%2.31X26%3.81230%3.29
Double chance
1X70%1.44X257%1.771274%1.36
Goals
Over 2.564%1.56Under 2.536%2.77BTTS yes65%1.53BTTS no35%2.89

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Fenerbahçe · Columns: Galatasaray1-1 probability 10.7%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Galatasaray – Fenerbahçe26 October 20262-1
Galatasaray – Fenerbahçe26 April 20263-0
Fenerbahçe – Galatasaray1 December 20251-1
Galatasaray – Fenerbahçe24 February 20250-0
Fenerbahçe – Galatasaray21 September 20241-3
Galatasaray – Fenerbahçe19 May 20240-1