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Süper Lig · Matchday 26Sunday 21 March · 12:00 · Kocaeli Stadyumu
Kocaelispor8th place
Rinvalo prediction1-0Medium confidence
Alanyaspor12th place
KOC 50%X 29%ALN 21%

Prediction

Key factors
  • xG difference over the last 10: Kocaelispor -0.1, Alanyaspor -1.0.
  • If Kocaelispor score first, they win 80% of the time
  • If Alanyaspor score first, they win 57% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 13%
Expected goals1.3 – 0.8
Over 2.535%
Both teams score40%
Likeliest score1-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
150%2.01X29%3.49221%4.66
Double chance
1X79%1.27X250%1.991271%1.40
Goals
Over 2.535%2.84Under 2.565%1.54BTTS yes40%2.47BTTS no60%1.68

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Kocaelispor · Columns: Alanyaspor1-0 probability 15.4%

Form

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Head to head

Alanyaspor – Kocaelispor23 October 20261-2
Alanyaspor – Kocaelispor18 March 20265-0
Kocaelispor – Alanyaspor25 October 20252-0