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Süper Lig · Matchday 18Sunday 24 January · 12:00 · Chobani Stadyumu
Fenerbahçe6th place
Rinvalo prediction2-0High confidence
Gençlerbirliği14th place
FB 76%X 16%GB 8%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Fenerbahçe lead by 217 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Fenerbahçe 0.8, Gençlerbirliği -0.5.
  • Last 5 games: Fenerbahçe 1.8 points per game, Gençlerbirliği 0.8.
  • If Fenerbahçe score first, they win 90% of the time
  • If Gençlerbirliği score first, they win 28% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 4%
Expected goals2.6 – 0.8
Over 2.567%
Both teams score51%
Likeliest score2-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
176%1.32X16%6.2428%12.32
Double chance
1X92%1.09X224%4.141284%1.19
Goals
Over 2.567%1.50Under 2.533%2.99BTTS yes51%1.94BTTS no49%2.06

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Fenerbahçe · Columns: Gençlerbirliği2-0 probability 11.2%

Form

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Head to head

Gençlerbirliği – Fenerbahçe15 August 20262-1
Fenerbahçe – Gençlerbirliği9 February 20263-1
Gençlerbirliği – Fenerbahçe31 August 20251-3