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Süper Lig · Matchday 16Friday 18 December · 17:00 · Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu
Kasımpaşa5th place
Rinvalo prediction1-2Medium confidence
Fenerbahçe6th place
KAS 25%X 26%FB 50%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Fenerbahçe lead by 156 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Fenerbahçe 0.8, Kasımpaşa 0.0.
  • If Kasımpaşa score first, they win 52% of the time
  • If Fenerbahçe score first, they win 74% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 5%
Expected goals1.2 – 1.8
Over 2.559%
Both teams score60%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a Fenerbahçe win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
125%4.08X26%3.91250%2.00
Double chance
1X50%2.00X275%1.321274%1.34
Goals
Over 2.559%1.70Under 2.541%2.44BTTS yes60%1.66BTTS no40%2.51

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Kasımpaşa · Columns: Fenerbahçe1-1 probability 11.3%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Fenerbahçe – Kasımpaşa23 February 20261-1
Kasımpaşa – Fenerbahçe21 September 20251-1
Fenerbahçe – Kasımpaşa16 February 20253-1
Kasımpaşa – Fenerbahçe15 September 20240-2
Fenerbahçe – Kasımpaşa24 February 20242-1
Kasımpaşa – Fenerbahçe8 October 20230-2