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Süper Lig · Matchday 24Sunday 7 March · 12:00 · Kocaeli Stadyumu
Kocaelispor8th place
Rinvalo prediction0-1Medium confidence
Beşiktaş4th place
KOC 26%X 29%BJK 45%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Beşiktaş lead by 125 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Beşiktaş 0.8, Kocaelispor -0.1.
  • If Kocaelispor score first, they win 61% of the time
  • If Beşiktaş score first, they win 75% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 12%
Expected goals0.9 – 1.3
Over 2.538%
Both teams score44%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 0-1 is the likeliest score within a Beşiktaş win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
126%3.81X29%3.42245%2.25
Double chance
1X55%1.80X274%1.361271%1.41
Goals
Over 2.538%2.64Under 2.562%1.61BTTS yes44%2.25BTTS no56%1.80

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Kocaelispor · Columns: Beşiktaş1-1 probability 14.0%

Form

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Head to head

Beşiktaş – Kocaelispor11 October 20262-1
Kocaelispor – Beşiktaş28 February 20260-1
Beşiktaş – Kocaelispor29 September 20253-1