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Champions League · League phase, matchday 2Wednesday 14 October · 20:00 · Etihad Stadium
Manchester City10th place
Full time2-4Rinvalo's pick: 2-1✕ Missed
Paris Saint-Germain1st place
MCI 51%X 21%PSG 28%

Prediction

Predicted: 2-1
Key factors
  • The Premier League average is 115 points above the Ligue 1 average.
  • If Manchester City score first, they win 74% of the time
  • If Paris Saint-Germain score first, they win 54% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.8 – 1.2
Over 2.558%
Both teams score60%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Manchester City win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
151%1.95X21%4.78228%3.58
Double chance
1X72%1.39X249%2.051279%1.26
Goals
Over 2.558%1.72Under 2.542%2.39BTTS yes60%1.67BTTS no40%2.49

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Manchester City · Columns: Paris Saint-Germain2-4 probability 0.8% · final score

Form

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Head to head

Manchester City – Paris Saint-Germain14 October 20262-4