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Champions League · League phase, matchday 2Wednesday 14 October · 20:00 · Stadio Olimpico
Roma15th place
Full time3-4Rinvalo's pick: 2-1✕ Missed
Real Madrid4th place
ROM 45%X 22%RMA 33%

Prediction

Predicted: 2-1
Key factors
  • The Serie A average is 30 points above the La Liga average.
  • If Roma score first, they win 69% of the time
  • If Real Madrid score first, they win 59% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.7 – 1.4
Over 2.558%
Both teams score61%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Roma win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
145%2.20X22%4.61233%3.04
Double chance
1X67%1.49X255%1.831278%1.28
Goals
Over 2.558%1.71Under 2.542%2.40BTTS yes61%1.64BTTS no39%2.57

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Roma · Columns: Real Madrid3-4 probability 0.5% · final score

Form

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Head to head

Roma – Real Madrid14 October 20263-4