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Champions League · League phase, matchday 2Wednesday 14 October · 20:00 · Stamford Bridge
Shakhtar Donetsk17th place
Full time3-1Prediction correct
AEK Athens29th place
SHA 49%X 21%AEK 29%

Prediction

Predicted: 2-1
  • If Shakhtar Donetsk score first, they win 73% of the time
  • If AEK Athens score first, they win 55% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.7 – 1.3
Over 2.558%
Both teams score60%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Shakhtar Donetsk win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
149%2.02X21%4.72229%3.40
Double chance
1X71%1.42X251%1.981279%1.27
Goals
Over 2.558%1.72Under 2.542%2.40BTTS yes60%1.66BTTS no40%2.52

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Shakhtar Donetsk · Columns: AEK Athens3-1 probability 5.5% · final score

Form

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Head to head

Shakhtar Donetsk – AEK Athens14 October 20263-1