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Europa League · League phase, matchday 4Thursday 5 November · 20:00 · AFAS Stadion Alkmaar
AZ Alkmaar10th place
Rinvalo prediction1-2
Juventus7th place
AZ 37%X 22%JUV 41%

What does the market say?

AZ AlkmaarDrawJuventusRinvalo37%22%41%
Market25%26%49%

✓ Agree · both back Juventus

Prediction

Key factors
  • Juventus lead by 92 points on the European rating.
  • The Serie A average is 98 points above the Eredivisie average.
  • If AZ Alkmaar score first, they win 62% of the time
  • If Juventus score first, they win 66% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.5 – 1.6
Over 2.558%
Both teams score62%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a Juventus win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
137%2.71X22%4.55241%2.43
Double chance
1X59%1.70X263%1.581278%1.28
Goals
Over 2.558%1.72Market 53%Under 2.542%2.40Market 47%BTTS yes62%1.62Market 55%BTTS no38%2.60Market 45%

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: AZ Alkmaar · Columns: Juventus1-1 probability 11.9%

Form

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