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Europa League · League phase, matchday 4Thursday 5 November · 17:45 · Stadio Giuseppe Meazza
Milan24th place
Rinvalo prediction2-1
Ferencvaros4th place
MIL 46%X 21%FER 33%

What does the market say?

MilanDrawFerencvarosRinvalo46%21%33%
Market72%17%11%

✓ Agree · both back Milan

Prediction

  • If Milan score first, they win 70% of the time
  • If Ferencvaros score first, they win 58% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.7 – 1.4
Over 2.559%
Both teams score61%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Milan win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
146%2.18X21%4.66233%3.06
Double chance
1X67%1.48X254%1.851279%1.27
Goals
Over 2.559%1.71Market 62%Under 2.541%2.41Market 38%BTTS yes61%1.63Market 50%BTTS no39%2.58Market 50%

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Milan · Columns: Ferencvaros1-1 probability 11.7%

Form

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