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Europa League · League phase, matchday 4Thursday 5 November · 17:45 · epet ARENA
Sparta Prague16th place
Rinvalo prediction1-2
Bournemouth3rd place
SPA 26%X 21%BOU 52%

What does the market say?

Sparta PragueDrawBournemouthRinvalo26%21%52%
Market15%22%63%

✓ Agree · both back Bournemouth

Prediction

Key factors
  • Bournemouth lead by 182 points on the European rating.
  • If Sparta Prague score first, they win 52% of the time
  • If Bournemouth score first, they win 75% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.2 – 1.8
Over 2.557%
Both teams score59%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a Bournemouth win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
126%3.80X21%4.68252%1.91
Double chance
1X48%2.10X274%1.361279%1.27
Goals
Over 2.557%1.75Market 59%Under 2.543%2.34Market 41%BTTS yes59%1.70Market 55%BTTS no41%2.42Market 45%

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Sparta Prague · Columns: Bournemouth1-1 probability 11.6%

Form

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