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Europa League · League phase, matchday 4Thursday 5 November · 17:45 · Selhurst Park
Crystal Palace15th place
Rinvalo prediction2-1
Hoffenheim23rd place
CRY 52%X 21%TSG 28%

What does the market say?

Crystal PalaceDrawHoffenheimRinvalo52%21%28%
Market50%25%25%

✓ Agree · both back Crystal Palace

Prediction

Key factors
  • The Premier League average is 58 points above the Bundesliga average.
  • If Crystal Palace score first, they win 74% of the time
  • If Hoffenheim score first, they win 53% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.8 – 1.2
Over 2.558%
Both teams score60%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Crystal Palace win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
152%1.94X21%4.83228%3.62
Double chance
1X72%1.38X248%2.071279%1.26
Goals
Over 2.558%1.71Market 62%Under 2.542%2.41Market 38%BTTS yes60%1.67Market 63%BTTS no40%2.50Market 38%

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Crystal Palace · Columns: Hoffenheim1-1 probability 11.4%

Form

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