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Europa League · League phase, matchday 4Thursday 5 November · 17:45 · Reale Arena
Real Sociedad14th place
Rinvalo prediction1-2
Lyon12th place
RSO 38%X 22%OL 40%

What does the market say?

Real SociedadDrawLyonRinvalo38%22%40%
Market52%25%23%

⚠ Split · Rinvalo Lyon 40%, market Real Sociedad 52%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Lyon lead by 80 points on the European rating.
  • If Real Sociedad score first, they win 64% of the time
  • If Lyon score first, they win 65% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.5 – 1.5
Over 2.558%
Both teams score62%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a Lyon win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
138%2.60X22%4.56240%2.53
Double chance
1X60%1.66X262%1.631278%1.28
Goals
Over 2.558%1.71Market 60%Under 2.542%2.40Market 40%BTTS yes62%1.62Market 61%BTTS no38%2.61Market 39%

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Real Sociedad · Columns: Lyon1-1 probability 11.9%

Form

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