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Mon 19:45ATA1-0PAR59%Mon 19:45LOR1-0BRE44%Mon 20:00DEP1-0OSA43%Mon 20:00NEW1-0EVE42%Mon 20:15BEN2-0ALV77%Mon 20:15GIL1-0VSC44%Tue 17:45GS2-1VFB43%Tue 17:45SHA1-2SCP46%Tue 19:45BLB1-0STK41%Tue 19:45CHA1-0BOL41%Tue 19:45DER1-2NOR43%Tue 19:45POR1-0SWA39%Tue 19:45PNE0-1SHU42%Tue 19:45QPR2-1BUR50%Tue 19:45WAT1-0LIN38%Tue 20:00BIR1-0MIL45%Tue 20:00WBA0-1SOU42%Tue 20:00ATM1-2FCB54%Tue 20:00BAR2-1AVL52%Tue 20:00BOD2-1LIL59%Tue 20:00FEY1-2INT47%Tue 20:00LAS2-1SLO61%Tue 20:00MUN1-2ROM40%Tue 20:00VIL0-2PSG69%
Europa League · League phase, matchday 4Thursday 5 November · 20:00 · Estádio da Luz
Benfica1st place
Rinvalo prediction2-0
Lech Poznan32nd place
BEN 72%X 16%LEC 12%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Benfica lead by 202 points on the European rating.
  • If Benfica score first, they win 89% of the time
  • If Lech Poznan score first, they win 34% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals2.2 – 0.7
Over 2.556%
Both teams score46%
Likeliest score2-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
172%1.38X16%6.45212%8.27
Double chance
1X88%1.14X228%3.621285%1.18
Goals
Over 2.556%1.78Under 2.544%2.28BTTS yes46%2.17BTTS no54%1.85

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
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5
Rows: Benfica · Columns: Lech Poznan2-0 probability 13.1%

Form

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