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Europa League · League phase, matchday 4Thursday 5 November · 20:00 · Estadio Abanca-Balaídos
Celta Vigo25th place
Rinvalo prediction1-2
Union Saint-Gilloise6th place
CEL 31%X 22%GIL 47%

What does the market say?

Celta VigoDrawUnion Saint-GilloiseRinvalo31%22%47%
Market43%26%32%

⚠ Split · Rinvalo Union Saint-Gilloise 47%, market Celta Vigo 43%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Union Saint-Gilloise lead by 138 points on the European rating.
  • If Celta Vigo score first, they win 57% of the time
  • If Union Saint-Gilloise score first, they win 71% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.3 – 1.7
Over 2.558%
Both teams score61%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a Union Saint-Gilloise win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
131%3.19X22%4.58247%2.14
Double chance
1X53%1.88X269%1.461278%1.28
Goals
Over 2.558%1.73Market 57%Under 2.542%2.37Market 43%BTTS yes61%1.65Market 58%BTTS no39%2.53Market 42%

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Celta Vigo · Columns: Union Saint-Gilloise1-1 probability 11.8%

Form

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